I’m Reading the Market Pulse This Way | Australian Markets

Three issues I’m desirous about immediately…

1) Well, would you take a look at this.

Yesterday you and I eyeballed the non bank sector.

What did we see?

One of the firms in the sector, Resimac ($RMC), is splashing money…through a particular dividend.

I take this as a good little constructive few will discover.

You see…

Lenders have their finger proper on the pulse of the nation. They can see if people are repaying their money owed, or falling behind.

They additionally see if the demand for credit is rising or falling.

As they are saying…

“Money talks, bullshit walks.”

Damn straight!

Now, what will we see this merry morning?

Another non bank, Pepper Money ($PPM), says this morning that it’s going to pay out a particular dividend too.

It’s raining money immediately!

Again, I discover this notable, and bullish.

I’ve adopted Pepper for a long time.

I do know they’ve a rock stable money place. That money determine was $124 million ultimately accounts (Dec 24).

That’s a huge chunk of change for a company with a $750 million market cap.

In truth, I used to be a bit miffed they didn’t do one thing like this in 2024.

They did begin a share buyback final yr. But they appeared a bit stingy with it, not less than to my thoughts, contemplating how low cost the share price was.

Someone’s received a bit more assured.

Now they’re going to pay out $55 million of that money to shareholders.

Why now?

I can’t learn minds. I can solely guess they see what I see – a home financial system going into an upswing.

Pepper’s management are loosening the shackles in response.

We can see this one other approach…

2) Judo ($JDO) is one other, larger, lender.

It’s totally different to Pepper and Resimac in that it has a banking license and makes use of deposits for funding.

But it has a finger on the financial pulse in the similar approach, with a slight twist.

Resimac and Pepper have substantial mortgage books. Judo is totally different. It’s primarily a business bank.

The workforce at Judo noticed a uncared for area of interest they might exploit: relationship banking for small and medium sized companies.

It’s working to this point. Judo had $11.6 billion in loans at the finish of 2024. Demand for business credit can also be sturdy in Australia.

Judo put their market share at 1.5%.

There’s a lot of room for enlargement. Today their guiding for a stable carry in revenue for the subsequent financial yr.

I take that as bullish, usually talking, too.

Judo’s share price is in a bit of a flat patch. I can see a good case for it to start rumbling again quickly.

One to keep an eye on from right here.

3) None of the above will likely be that shocking when you’ve learn Fat Tail Daily for a bit.

I keep making the case to take the optimistic method in relation to the share market.

In truth, back in 2023 one wag dubbed me “the most positive man in finance”.

It sure feels higher that approach if you get up in the morning.

But it’s additionally the logical factor to do.

Back in April S&P Global launched this small report on the historical past of the ASX/200 from 2000 to 2025.

You can see it your self right here.

They additionally included this helpful chart…

The bars show the calendar yr return for the ASX/200 going back to 2000.

You can see from this that the market is constructive far more than it’s unfavorable.

Of course, 2008 – the GFC – stands out as the humdinger on the draw back…and nonetheless lurks in the minds of many.

History is evident on this level: fortune favours the optimists.

In truth, I wouldn’t be shocked if we had a stable run of years from 2023 to 2027 like we did from 2003-2007. I’m not saying it’s with out risk, or gained’t be unstable.

But that’s my pondering at present till I see one thing to get mega bearish on.

That’s the base of my gameplan. I’m looking for alternatives with this in thoughts.

Best needs,

Callum Newman,
Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

Silver went ballistic in a single day leaping 5.4% to US$34.79.

That is value noting as a result of it takes silver up to the edge of main resistance at US$35.00.

Silver has been severely lagging the gold price over the previous six months. Despite gold’s 25% surge since late 2024, silver has gone sideways.

My principle is that giant buyers are shopping for gold and promoting silver short as a hedge.

The technical scenario in silver stays explosive. That’s as a result of a rise above resistance at US$35.00 provides targets to the main promote zone between US$40.00-$45.00 (see chart above).

Silver is down 2% during our day session to US$34.00, so resistance continues to be fairly stiff round $US35.00.

But it seems to be like we aren’t far-off from seeing what occurs when silver punches by means of that resistance stage.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps