Sugar Prices Retreat on Expectations of Stronger | U.S. Finance News
October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) at this time is down -0.17 (-1.03%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) is down -6.20 (-1.27%).Sugar costs are sliding at this time on the outlook for stronger sugar exports from India and Thailand. Hedgepoint Global Markets mentioned at this time that it expects India’s 2025/26 sugar exports of 1.5 MMT, greater than a earlier estimate of 500,000 MT. Also, it expects 2025/26 sugar exports from Thailand to climb +11.8% y/y to 7.6 MMT.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to espresso, signal up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation. On Wednesday, London sugar rallied to a 5-week high on indicators of stronger international sugar demand. China’s July sugar imports surged +76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan not too long ago tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar.On Monday, sugar costs fell to a 1-week low on the outlook for Brazil’s sugar mills to increase manufacturing. Covrig Analytics reported Monday that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing more cane for sugar. This development is anticipated to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide more sugar. NY sugar rallied to a 2-month high final Tuesday on considerations over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output within the second half of July fell by -0.8% y/y to three,614 MT, and the 2025-26 Center-South sugar output by way of July fell -7.8% y/y to 19,268 MT. However, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of July elevated to 54.10% from 50.32% the identical time final 12 months. Also, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, mentioned final month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields on account of drought and extreme heat.The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is destructive for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India might allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as plentiful monsoon rains might produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 611.2 mm as of August 18, or 1% above regular. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association not too long ago mentioned that it’ll search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That would observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in line with the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Sugar costs retreated by way of early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT international sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would increase by +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT, with international sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 international sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This signifies a tightening market following the 2023/24 international sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO additionally cut its 2024/25 international sugar manufacturing forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched May 22, projected that international 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a document 189.318 MMT and that international 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a document 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 international sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a document 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT on account of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
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