AI Scammers, Cheaters and Liars: Coming to a | Australian Markets

Three issues I’m enthusiastic about as we speak…

1) Last week I flagged the investment banker saying the market would possibly tank 20% someday quickly. That’s one situation put on the desk.

After a forecast like that, it helps to examine in on what firms are doing. Are they increasing? Hunkering down? Hiring?

Here’s what I see. Buybacks appear to be all over!

Case in level is the non bank sector. I additionally touched on this sector final week speaking about MA Financial ($MAF). MAF aren’t shopping for back stock, however they’re increasing.

It’s Resimac ($RMC) and Pepper Money ($PPM) I’m watching on the buybacks.

Here’s why I point out it. The non bank stocks had been clobbered from their peak in 2021. They’ve been on the ground ever since.

I’ve watched them the entire time. In 2023 and 2024 they provisioned for increased unhealthy money owed and financial weak point.

That’s why the buybacks now appear notable. They’re snug utilizing their money. They’re not hunkering down.

By implication they assume their share price is simply too low cost…and the financial outlook is getting higher, and not worse.

Resimac additionally introduced a particular dividend this morning after a small asset sale.

I’m not suggesting you buy these two.

It’s simply, “by their deeds ye shall know what they think of the general outlook”. It can’t be too unhealthy, at the very least of their thoughts. That’s my learn of it, anyway. 😊

2) That jogs my memory. On the Closing Bell final week I identified a fund supervisor profiled within the Fin Review.

This gent was saying that there are much less and much less methods to “play” housing on the ASX. That’s after a bunch of mergers and takeovers in recent times.

There may very well be even fewer shortly.

This morning the Street Talk column means that Brickworks ($BKW) goes to merge with Soul Patts.

These two have a considerably sophisticated “cross holding” the place they own shares in one another.

However, in the event that they turn out to be one, as appears probably now, that’s one other property associated angle barely diminished.

It does recommend those that stay would possibly generate a premium as a result of of this. We’ll see!

3) There’s a last level about non banks for as we speak. They use “securitisation” to fund their loans.

I occur to be studying this ebook presently…

It profiles some of the massive names in finance. One of these is Larry Fink.

Larry is the CEO of Black Rock and a gazillionaire.

Here’s why I deliver him up as we speak. Larry pioneered securitisation within the USA many years in the past.

He makes the purpose that this helped housing turn out to be more reasonably priced, when it started, as a result of it lowered the price of debt for the home purchaser.

30 years later it ended within the US housing bubble and junk loans to unemployed people with no income. This rancid debt introduced the worldwide financial system down.

That wasn’t Larry’s fault. It’s simply the place the market ended up.

It made me marvel about artificial intelligence as we speak. For sure that is going to help firms turn out to be more profitable and productive.

But how is it going to go unhealthy, rogue or harmful? Your guess is pretty much as good as mine. But market historical past is affected by frauds, scams and liars.

AI may very well be very harmful with this thoughts. Stay vigilant.

Best needs,

Callum Newman,
Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

The weekly chart is the one timeframe that is still bearish within the S&P 500.

The day by day and month-to-month charts are pointing up.

The large rally we’ve got witnessed for the reason that Trump tariff tantrum has taken costs proper up into the promote zone of the entire correction.

Now it’s choice time.

A continued rally over the subsequent few weeks will flip the weekly pattern to up and most likely take costs above the all-time high.

You are a courageous trader if you’re prepared to keep bearish as soon as that occurs.

But if we see a weekly close within the S&P 500 beneath 5725-5767 there may be a probability we’re on the cusp of the subsequent leg down.

A close beneath that space will verify a weekly promote pivot and additionally a close beneath the 10-week exponential shifting average.

If there may be one other bout of promoting to come it is going to most likely begin after that promote signal is confirmed.

I stay long, holding onto present open positions as a result of the long run trends stay up and there may be a probability we see each timeframe flip optimistic quickly.

But if we’ve got a unhealthy week, I’ll critically think about reducing publicity for the time being.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

All advice is common advice and has not taken into consideration your personal circumstances.

Please search impartial financial advice relating to your own scenario, or if doubtful in regards to the suitability of an investment.

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