Lies, Lies and GDP Statistics | Australian Markets

Three issues I’m desirous about as we speak…

1. The latest US GDP quantity is deceptive you, me and everybody else…

You may’ve seen a bit of chit chat about how US GDP fell within the first quarter. Yes? No? You can see it visually on this chart:

This is a “worry” for some.

If the second quarter comes out detrimental too, then the USA can be in a “technical” recession. That’s two quarters of detrimental GDP.

Yawn!

Here are two the reason why this sort of factor may be deceptive on the subject of the share market.

The first purpose?  The latest drop in web exports – as a result of of the mad rush to import earlier than the tariffs – distorted the headline quantity.

The second level is that there’s one thing referred to as “core GDP.” This simply measures client spending and personal investment. This got here in super sturdy.

The headline quantity obscures this.

Let’s be trustworthy. GDP chat is as boring as bat shit.

However…

If you’re questioning why the US stock market is bouncing so laborious because the massive dip, that is a massive purpose why.

However… *again*

Trump’s tariffs at the moment are eroding this US financial power.

The market is saying that the present stand off can’t final, and assumes a deal occurs.  Don’t let uncertainty round this stop you from appearing now.  

Consider…

2. Tariffs: a win for Aussie beef farmers

Old Trumpy may be well-liked in Queensland proper now.

Aussie beef costs are back up at 2 yr highs due to Chinese consumers coming into the market. US beef is being displaced.

However, it’s not all about tariffs. Good rain is important too.

That jogs my memory of an Australian Financial Review story that appeared in early 2024. Have a learn of this…

“Melbourne hedge fund Farrer Capital is betting that Australian cattle costs will soar subsequent yr.

“Adam Davis says the return of the La Nina weather pattern in the months ahead will boost domestic cattle prices by 50 per cent as major cattle producing countries such as Brazil, the United States and Australia rebuild their herds, setting up a bullish environment (puns aside) for beef markets.”

I’m not sure if the price is kind of as high now as this gent thought it may be, back then. But he’s actually acquired the climate and the overall development proper.

Certainly, Queensland is the place to invest proper now.

I discussed fund supervisor Matthew Kidman yesterday.

One of the factors he made is that, in contrast, business in Victoria is a main weak spot for the nation proper now.

Do make sure to examine if any share you own has a heavy weighting down right here. Plenty of retail chains have a good chunk of their shops in Victoria, for instance.

Firms weighted towards WA and Queensland are a higher guess.

3. By the way in which, examine this out…

On April 9 I advised readers of my advisory, Australian Small Cap Investigator, to “hold their nose and buy”. I gave a number of solutions.

Here’s how they’ve carried out during the last month…

It’s by no means simple stepping in during occasions like final month. Charlie Bilello makes this level this week.

“The index has advanced 18% from the April lows, illustrating once again that the biggest rallies tend to occur after the biggest short-term declines.”

One to recollect for the following time.

Best needs,

Callum Newman,
Editor, Small-Cap Systems and Australian Small-Cap Investigator

PS. Make sure you tune in tomorrow for my latest report on the shares I counsel scooping up for the remaining of the yr…and past. 

Murray’s Chart of the Day
– Gold Weekly Chart

We are seeing some wild swings within the price of gold in the mean time.

Last evening noticed a US$100 rally flip into a US$70 fall within the blink of an eye after news got here out that the US and China will meet in Switzerland to kick off trade talks.

After the primary weekly promote pivot since late 2024 was confirmed final week, the chances have been growing that a correction could also be coming quickly.

But a sharp rally over the previous few days threw that concept up within the air.

Where gold finishes this week will likely be important for short time period direction. If the price closes above US$3,353 it should affirm a weekly buy pivot and the rally can proceed.

But if we see additional weak point into the tip of the week and a close under US$3,353, the weekly promote pivot type final week will stay dwell. Hence, the probability of additional draw back within the quick future will increase.

Regards,

Murray Dawes,
Editor, Retirement Trader and Fat Tail Microcaps

The post Lies, Lies and GDP Statistics appeared first on Fat Tail Daily.

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