Nat-Gas Prices Climb on Forecasts for Hotter US | U.S. Finance News
October Nymex natural gasoline (NGV25) on Wednesday closed up +0.055 (+1.83%).Oct nat-gas costs on Wednesday added to Tuesday’s positive factors and posted a 4-week high on forecasts for hotter temperatures within the northern half of the US, which can enhance nat-gas demand from electrical energy suppliers to energy air con. On Wednesday, forecaster Atmospheric G2 mentioned forecasts shifted hotter for the center of the nation for September 8-12, and temperatures additionally trended hotter over the northern half of the nation for September 13-17.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to espresso, signal up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation. Natural gasoline costs have been beneath stress over the previous 2.5 months, dropping to a 9.5-month low in nearest-futures costs final Monday, as forecasts for cooler late-summer climate emerged and as US gasoline manufacturing stays close to a file high. Ramped-up US nat-gas manufacturing is one other bearish issue for costs. On August 12, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July’s estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas manufacturing by +0.7% to 106.09 from July’s 105.4 bcf/day forecast. US nat-gas manufacturing is at present close to a file high, with energetic US nat-gas rigs not too long ago posting a 2-year high.US (lower-48) dry gasoline manufacturing on Wednesday was 105.7 bcf/day (+3.3% y/y), in response to BNEF. Lower-48 state gasoline demand on Wednesday was 74.0 bcf/day (+2.3% y/y), in response to BNEF. Estimated LNG web flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday have been 15.0 bcf/day (-0.5% w/w), in response to BNEF.As a supportive issue for gasoline costs, the Edison Electric Institute reported final Wednesday that US (lower-48) electrical energy output within the week ended August 23 rose +7.7% y/y to 95,130 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electrical energy output within the 52-week period ending August 23 rose +3.1% y/y to 4,270,960 GWh.
The consensus is that Thursday’s weekly EIA nat-gas inventories will climb by +75 bcf for the week ended August 29, nicely above the five-year average for this time of 12 months of +36 bcf.Last Thursday’s weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas costs since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 22 rose +18 bcf, beneath the consensus of +27 bcf and nicely beneath the 5-year weekly average of +38 bcf. As of August 22, nat-gas inventories have been down -3.5% y/y, however have been +5.0% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling sufficient nat-gas provides. As of September 1, gasoline storage in Europe was 78% full, in comparison with the 5-year seasonal average of 85% full for this time of 12 months.Baker Hughes reported final Friday that the quantity of energetic US nat-gas drilling rigs within the week ending August 29 fell by -3 to 122 rigs, just under the 2-year high of 124 rigs posted on August 1. In the previous 12 months, the quantity of gasoline rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
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