Smooth Sailing – Fat Tail Daily | Australian Markets

Uh oh. In the battle between advantage and vice, it seems like our fav congressman goes down. The Washington Examiner:

Pro-Israel billionaires spent over $1.5 million in 38 days to oust Thomas Massie

Polling exhibits him working approach behind the candidate Trump/AIPAC paid for.

Massie made a good level in a latest interview. It’s not simply Trump and the Israel foyer he’s up in opposition to…it’s America’s firepower industry too. They all need more of the public’s money. But it’s worse. Massie is up in opposition to the entire system of pretend money and inflated costs. Anyone who stands in the way in which is marked for elimination. .

Massie: “The Pentagon provides Congress with a handy map showing all the districts where defense industries are located and all the jobs they create.”

That is what we see. What we don’t see is all the roles, incomes, gross sales and earnings taken from elsewhere. Every pound of metal used to make a tank shouldn’t be used to construct an HVAC system. And even when the money is pretend — ‘printed’ and borrowed — it nonetheless is used to buy actual assets that should come out of the true financial system.

Which brings us to our query for at present. What is it we’re not seeing? What’s the remainder of the story?

We see what’s, not what might be…or must be…or can be. A person takes a trip to Milan, and misses the sights in Paris. Napoleon takes his troopers to Moscow; they could have loved the Cote d’Azur as an alternative. A bomb goes off…and kills a man who may need discovered a remedy for most cancers.

We solely know a small half of the story. And the half we expect we all know we see solely by way of a glass darkly.

We are advised, for instance, that the tariffs are a huge success as a result of the income to the Treasury will cut back deficits and debt. In this case, the ‘more to the story’ didn’t take long in coming. CNBC:

US deficit grows to $291 billion in July regardless of surge in tariff income

The deficit for July was up 19%, or $47 billion, from July 2024. Receipts for the month grew 2%, or $8 billion, to $338 billion, whereas outlays jumped 10%, or $56 billion, to $630 billion, a report high for the month.

At this fee, anticipated revenues from tariffs, whereas substantial, will nonetheless be negligible from a debt discount standpoint.

Until final week, Mr. Trump seemed upon the job numbers as proof of a healthy financial system. Then, when the numbers have been revised downward, he claimed they have been ‘rigged.’ But both approach, the numbers show nothing.

Some of the disappeared jobs may need vanished as a result of industries feared the uncertainty of Trump’s unpredictable Big Man management. Others may need gone away as a result of ladies are leaving the workforce. Newsweek:

Hundreds of Thousands of Women Are Leaving the Labor Force

Or as a result of the immigrants are packing up. USA Today:

The nation’s immigrant population could have dropped by roughly two million people within the first six months of the yr, in keeping with new authorities knowledge.

And within the stock market, report costs show that the Trump Team have to be doing one thing proper…proper? Stock costs are knowledge. Facts. They don’t lie. Reuters:

S&P 500, Nasdaq hit report highs at open…

But wait. What tales are stock costs not telling us?

Stocks within the US are up virtually 10% this yr. But in Germany they’re up 35%. Has the Trump Team price buyers a 25% gain?

We don’t know. But congratulations could also be untimely. Like praising the captain of the Titanic for 4 days of clean crusing…or Herbert Hoover for the outstanding stock market of the summer time of 1929…

It is perhaps smart to attend for the remainder of the story.

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