Sugar Prices Settle Higher as a Weak Dollar Spurs | U.S. Finance News
October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Friday closed up +0.13 (+0.80%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed up +4.10 (+0.85%).Sugar costs on Friday settled greater after a plunge within the greenback index (DXY00) to a 3.5-week low sparked short overlaying in sugar futures.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to espresso, signal up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation. On Wednesday, London sugar rallied to a 5-week high on indicators of stronger world sugar demand. China’s July sugar imports surged +76% to 740,000 MT, and Pakistan lately tendered for 200,000 MT of refined sugar.On Monday, sugar costs fell to 2-week lows on the outlook for Brazil’s sugar mills to increase manufacturing. Covrig Analytics reported Monday that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing more cane for sugar. This development is predicted to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide more sugar. NY sugar rallied to a 2-month high final Tuesday on issues over weaker cane yields in Brazil. Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output within the second half of July fell by -0.8% y/y to three,614 MT, and the 2025-26 Center-South sugar output by July fell -7.8% y/y to 19,268 MT. However, the proportion of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the second half of July elevated to 54.10% from 50.32% the identical time final yr. Also, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, stated final month that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields resulting from drought and extreme heat.The outlook for greater sugar exports from India is destructive for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India could allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as ample monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 611.2 mm as of August 18, or 1% above regular. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association lately stated that it’ll search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.
The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That would observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, based on the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Sugar costs retreated by early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the biggest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would increase by +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.The outlook for greater sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024/25 world sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. This signifies a tightening market following the 2023/24 world sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. ISO additionally cut its 2024/25 world sugar manufacturing forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched May 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT resulting from favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
didn’t have (both instantly or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the creator and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.
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