Sugar Prices Settle Lower on Stronger Brazil Sugar | U.S. Finance News
October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Tuesday closed down -0.22 (-1.34%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -11.10 (-2.21%).Sugar costs settled sharply decrease on Tuesday, with NY sugar posting a 4-week low. Sugar costs are underneath stress due to the outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Brazil. Last Friday, Unica reported that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output within the first half of August rose by +16% y/y to three,615 MT. Also, the share of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil’s sugar mills within the first half of August elevated to 55.00% from 49.15% the identical time final yr. However, cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output by means of mid-August is down -4.7% y/y to 22.886 MMT.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to espresso, signal up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity evaluation. Covrig Analytics lately reported that Brazil’s sugar mills are prioritizing sugar manufacturing over ethanol, crushing more cane for sugar. This development is anticipated to proceed as harvesting peaks, pushed by drier cane crops that immediate mills to provide more sugar. Sugar costs had been additionally pressured Tuesday from weak spot within the Brazilian actual. The actual (^USDBRL) fell to a 1.5-week low towards the greenback on Tuesday, encouraging export gross sales kind Brazil’s sugar producers.Last Friday, London sugar rose to a 3.5-month high after the International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecast a world sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive yr of sugar deficits. The ISO initiatives a world 2025/26 sugar deficit of -231,000 MT, bettering from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25. The ISO additionally initiatives 2025/26 world sugar manufacturing will rise by +3.3% y/y to 180.6 MMT, and 2025/26 world sugar consumption will increase +0.3% y/y to 180.8 MMT.On August 19, Conab, Brazil’s authorities crop forecasting company, cut its Brazil 2025/26 manufacturing estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 MMT from a earlier estimate of 45.9 MMT. In July, Conab reported that 2024/25 Brazil sugar manufacturing fell by -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing decrease sugarcane yields on account of drought and extreme heat.
The outlook for increased sugar exports from India is unfavourable for sugar costs after Bloomberg reported that India could allow native sugar mills to export sugar within the subsequent season, which begins in October, as considerable monsoon rains could produce a bumper sugar crop. India’s Meteorological Department reported at present that cumulative monsoon rain in India was 767.1 mm as of September 2, or 7% above regular. Also, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association lately mentioned that it’s going to search permission to export 2 MMT of sugar in 2025/26.The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, is bearish for costs. On June 2, India’s National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +19% y/y to 35 MMT, citing bigger planted cane acreage. That would observe a -17.5% y/y decline in India’s sugar manufacturing in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, in response to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). Sugar costs retreated by means of early July, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low and London sugar sliding to a 4-year low, pushed by expectations of a sugar surplus within the 2025/26 season. On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT world sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the most important surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would increase by +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT, with world sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y/y.The outlook for increased sugar manufacturing in Thailand is bearish for sugar costs. On May 2, Thailand’s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s 2024/25 sugar manufacturing rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.The USDA, in its bi-annual report launched May 22, projected that world 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would climb +4.7% y/y to a report 189.318 MMT and that world 2025/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y/y to a report 177.921 MMT. The USDA additionally forecasted that 2025/26 world sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y/y to 41.188 MMT. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +2.3% y/y to a report 44.7 MMT FAS predicted that India’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing would rise +25% y/y to 35.3 MMT on account of favorable monsoon rains and elevated sugar acreage. FAS predicted that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar manufacturing will climb +2% y/y to 10.3 MMT.
On the date of publication,
Rich Asplund
didn’t have (both immediately or not directly) positions in any of the securities talked about on this article. All data and information on this article is solely for informational functions.
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