The Information Problem – Fat Tail Daily | Australian Markets

‘History will be kind to me. For I intend to write it.’

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—Winston Churchill

‘It certainly has a 1999 feel to it,’ we stated to no one. Working alone in our little octagonal workplace in rural France, ‘no one’ is our assistant…our confidante…our proper hand man. As sharp as a tack. As empty-headed as a cupboard member.

We look back. As the twenty first century gestated, the US stock market grew to become more and more absurd. Companies with no earnings, no business plans, no staff, and no actual hope have been all of the sudden price hundreds of thousands of {dollars}.

These have been ‘dot.coms,’ the enterprises — typically created by youngsters who just lately dropped out of faculty — that will remake the entire world primarily based on a new model.

The new model trusted an thought — that materials progress was the consequence of “information.”

‘What is the difference between Manhattan and Mozambique?’ requested the callow cognoscenti. Mozambique has wealthy farmland. Beautiful seashores. Mineral wealth. Agricultural wealth. And with 33 million people, a substantial human wealth too.

Manhattan, in the meantime, has no lush fields…no pristine seashores…no lively mines and just one.6 million people. But these Manhattanites are far richer, with a complete GDP of about $1 trillion in comparison with a complete GDP for Mozambique of solely about $22 billion.

Why the distinction? They share the identical air…the identical 24-hour day…the identical legal guidelines of the universe. But one group is aware of how to take these assets and work them up into skyscrapers and YouTube. The different doesn’t.

‘Information is the key,’ they stated. They claimed to know how the data revolution wrought by the web had modified the whole lot. ‘And now,’ they stated back in 1999, ‘the folks in Mozambique have access to all the facts and figures regularly used by the Manhattanites to make money, it is just a matter of time until they put up their own Rockefeller Center and begin dining at their own Tribeca Grill.’

Of course, they have been fallacious. It’s been a quarter of a century for the reason that web was absolutely constructed out. Mozambique continues to be poor. Manhattan continues to be wealthy.

And the web is a mess — full of lies, distortions and time wasters. For each web page of the periodic desk, there are 1000’s of pages of pretend news, claptrap science, and kitten videos.

In short, the web mirrors actual life itself — with a idiot on each nook and a jackass in each high public workplace.

But wait. Hallelujah. Now we have now AI! Finally, the AI corporations — Nvidia within the lead — are on the high of the stock charts, simply because the dot coms have been 25 years in the past. They offer to resolve the issue created by the web…‘too much info.’ Instead of sorting by means of 1000’s of pages ourselves…making an attempt to separate the beer from the froth…we have now AI to do it for us.

Test it your self. Just go to ChatGPT or Musk’s Grok 3. Ask it to cut by means of the crap and offer you a straight reply. Are stocks going up or down? Will tariffs actually help the US financial system? Is Israel actually murdering ladies and youngsters?

In each case, you’re going to get a pretty clever mush-mouth reply. And speak about time wasters! Using AI instruments, you can’t solely disperse information (as on the web), you may create it…mountains of it…typically true, typically false…typically useful, typically not.

Want to see a video of Donald Trump driving his golf cart off a cliff? How about a video of ‘Gone With the Wind’…however with the Confederate States victorious? True historical past; pretend historical past? You can rewrite historical past to go well with any crackpot idea you come up with.

Yes, pricey reader…AI will make the ‘information problem’ worse, not higher. And what an alternative for the elite. All over the world, mainstream governments are discovering it tougher and tougher to justify themselves.

Populations are declining. Social welfare systems — set up like Ponzi schemes — are going broke. Economies are trussed up by far-reaching rules, taxes, sanctions, inflation, central planning, and wasteful authorities packages.

Debt grows by the trillions. The wealthy get richer than ever. But the everyday citizen finds it tougher and tougher to get forward. Thanks to tariffs, deficits, and the Big, Beautiful Budget Abomination we’re heading in the right direction for a national debt of $150 trillion by mid-century.

Of course, the debt bubble will blow up long earlier than that. In the meantime, AI can be helpful. It will help keep the voters confused and docile, so the parasitic elite stay in control. CarnegieEndowment.org:

AI: The New Face of Propaganda

On June 23, 2025, WITNESS obtained a WhatsApp video displaying clouds of smoke billowing from Evin jail in Tajrish, Iran. Filmed from a close by house, the communication carried a stark message: “They are trying to open Evin.” The notorious jail—a web site of torture, killing, and confinement of dissidents, journalists, and activists—had been bombed. Israeli officers deemed the strike “symbolic,” a gesture in opposition to the Islamic Republic’s repression. For many Iranians, shattering the gates of Evin appeared to be a resonant image of hope for the liberty of the nation’s best and brightest long held behind its partitions.

On social media, Israel tried to capitalize on this development. Its overseas minister posted one other clip displaying Evin’s entrance gates being blown aside in an obvious surgical strike. He boasted on X (previously Twitter), “¡Viva la libertad, carajo!” (“Long live freedom, damn it!”). But in contrast to the primary video, the Israeli footage was seemingly pretend.

Forensic evaluation of the Israeli clip means that it was seemingly created utilizing artificial intelligence (AI). For instance, it contained nonetheless photographs of the Evin gates present in an article revealed in 2021; these photographs may have been manipulated by AI instruments. These findings have been corroborated by the Deepfakes Rapid Response Force, a fast response mechanism for evaluating misleading AI run globally by WITNESS.

Yes, AI can be a great tool.

Not essentially a helpful one.

All advice is normal advice and has not taken under consideration your personal circumstances.

Please search impartial financial advice concerning your own scenario, or if unsure in regards to the suitability of an investment.