Waiting Game: Copper’s Next Major Move is Building | Australian Markets

As you may recall, we examined the copper market in depth earlier within the 12 months, detailing its huge divergence from the market, rising virtually 30% for the primary three months of 2025.

As I defined, rising imports into the US (forward of tariffs) have been pushing up the price of copper on the benchmark COMEX exchange to new all-time highs.

So we requested… Would copper’s momentum proceed after the ‘tariff effect’ started to unwind?

Copper futures have been urgent new all-time highs…

A historic break-out seemed imminent.

But then Friday, April 4, 2025, rolled round. Trump’s notorious tariff bulletins despatched stock markets throughout the globe tumbling.

Incredibly, copper futures fell a historic 9% in only one session.

That was a blow for anybody anticipating a sturdy imminent transfer within the commodity sector.

In the primary week of final month, copper returned the majority of its beneficial properties from 2025.

But with the mud settling and feelings calming, I believed now can be a good time to evaluate Dr Copper and whether or not our bullish long-term outlook stays intact.

Keep Your Eye on the Long-Term Trend

As you possibly can see, the April sell-off meant one other failed breakout for copper. This marks the THIRD successive ‘failed’ break for copper within the final 5 years.

I’ve circled each on the chart beneath:

The first was in 2022, then in 2024 after which our most up-to-date check in late March. Each has been a check of copper’s historic 2011 prime (far left), the height of the final commodity growth.

But one other failed breakout has in all probability pushed many buyers out of the copper market, who’ve develop into fed up with it coming tantalisingly close to a breakout however failing again.

But it’s important to grasp that building up to those occasions takes time.

On all accounts, copper’s set-up seems remarkably just like what has occurred with gold.

Like copper, gold examined its 2011 all-time highs THREE instances earlier than lastly breaking out in early 2024.

And like a slingshot with stored-up vitality, gold’s ‘breakout’ despatched costs vertical final 12 months:

Copper: On Track for a Breakout in 2025

So, do we’ve a potential repeat sample forming within the copper market?

As I’ve stated many instances prior to now, gold typically leads in commodity bull markets.

And as you possibly can see on the chart above, gold examined its cyclical high from 2011 THREE instances earlier than lastly breaking larger in March 2024.

This is exactly what’s occurring with copper as we speak.

Copper HAD to carry its long-term development amid the market blow-off in early April.

And as you possibly can see, regardless of shedding the majority of its 2025 beneficial properties and dropping as a lot as 9% in a single trading session final month (crimson dot), the development stays firmly intact:

A resilient 5-year sample that’s resisted a Chinese real estate collapse, a persistently sturdy US greenback, and long-term malaise in world growth.

Copper, the world’s most important ‘growth’ commodity, continues to climate these macroeconomic headwinds.

For these causes, I instructed copper would (as soon as again) be up for this latest ‘tariff challenge’. And to date, that’s proving appropriate.

Putting all of the news apart… Trump tweets, China/US discussions, and so on., and so on. —in my thoughts, essentially the most important factor to watch is the copper chart, the grand scale pivoting patrons towards sellers.

If the development continues, there’s each likelihood we’ll see one other retesting of the highs in 2025—maybe not imminently, however sooner or later later this 12 months.

So, regardless of all of the market confusion, Dr. Copper’s prognosis stays healthy.

Which means… holding firm in your copper stocks!

Until subsequent time,

Regards,

James Cooper,
Editor, Mining: Phase One and Diggers and Drillers

All advice is normal advice and has not taken into consideration your personal circumstances.

Please search unbiased financial advice concerning your own scenario, or if unsure concerning the suitability of an investment.

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